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Super Bowl LXI odds

Super Bowl LXI is in February 2027, and on October 15, 2026 the prediction markets had an unusually flat field: the 49ers at about 13%, Bills 12%, Rams 11%, Chiefs 10%, Ravens and Seahawks 8%, Jaguars 7%, with the Bears, Bengals and Vikings around 4%. On an exchange, those percentages are prices: buy the 49ers at 13¢ and get $1 if they win. Unlike a sportsbook futures board, the whole field adds up to about 100%, and you can sell your contract any Sunday the price moves.

Snapshot, October 15, 2026

TeamKalshiPolymarketAverage
San Francisco 49ers13.5%12.6%13%
Buffalo Bills11.5%11.5%12%
Los Angeles Rams10.5%10.5%11%
Kansas City Chiefs9.5%9.85%*10%
Baltimore Ravens8.5%7.85%*8%
Seattle Seahawks8.5%7.5%8%
Jacksonville Jaguars6.5%7.05%7%
Chicago Bears4.5%3.45%*4%

* flagged as a stale quote at snapshot time. Cincinnati and Minnesota also around 4%. Prices move every game; this is a dated snapshot.

How the contract works

Each team is a Yes/No market: "Will the 49ers win Super Bowl LXI?" Buy Yes at 13¢; if they win, each contract pays $1 (87¢ profit before fees); if not, it expires at $0. Because every team's Yes contract is on the same board, the Yes prices sum to about 100% plus the spread. A sportsbook's futures board for the same teams typically implies 120–130% because the margin is built into every price. That gap is the structural reason exchange futures pay more.

Selling early

You don't have to hold to February. Buy the Jaguars at 7¢ in October; if they're 8–1 by December and trade at 15¢, sell. A sportsbook future is locked (or cashed out at the book's price). This also means you can hedge a contract you bought in the summer against the team you now fear.

Fees

Sports takers pay 5% × P × (1 − P) on Polymarket, 7% on Kalshi, nothing pre-game on Novig; makers are free everywhere. At 13¢ the fee is well under a cent per contract, but as a share of a 13¢ stake it's several percent, so use resting orders when buying longshots. See Kalshi fees and Polymarket fees.

Where you can and can't

Kalshi: everywhere but Nevada, Michigan and Washington for sports. Polymarket US: not Nevada, sports restricted in several states. Novig: 47 states, 21+. ProphetX: not Nevada, 19+. FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions: sports contracts only where online sportsbooks aren't legal. Full map in legality by state.

Snapshot per DefiRate's Super Bowl odds tracker (Oct 15, 2026, 11:39 AM ET). Not a recommendation.

Questions people ask

Who is favoured to win Super Bowl LXI?

On October 15, 2026 the exchanges had the San Francisco 49ers narrowly ahead at about 13%, then the Bills (12%), Rams (11%) and Chiefs (10%). That's a flat field; no team was above one-in-seven.

How is a prediction-market Super Bowl contract different from a sportsbook future?

You buy a Yes contract on a team at its price (13¢ for the 49ers) and get $1 if they win; the prices across all 32 teams add up to roughly 100% plus a small spread, not the 120–130% a sportsbook futures board implies. You can also sell before the game at the current price, which a sportsbook future doesn't allow.

Can I trade Super Bowl odds in my state?

Depends on the platform and state. Kalshi's sports boards are off in Nevada, Michigan and Washington; Polymarket's sports markets are restricted in several states; FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions offer sports only where sportsbooks aren't legal. See legality by state.

Which platform has the best Super Bowl prices?

Prices track closely across Kalshi and Polymarket; the difference is fees (Polymarket 5% rate on sports, Kalshi 7%, Novig free pre-game) and liquidity (Kalshi deepest). Compare the specific team's price plus fee.