Guides
How this stuff actually works, from the first contract to the tax form. Written for someone who has never traded one.
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- What is a prediction market?Contracts, cents and why the price is a probability. Start here if you've never traded one.
- Is Kalshi legit?Regulated since 2020, pays out, enforces its rules. Here's the evidence and the caveats.
- How does Kalshi work?From sign-up to payout: contracts, order types, fees and settlement, step by step.
- Kalshi fees explainedThe formula, a table by price, maker vs taker, and what it does to your break-even.
- Is Kalshi gambling?Exchange or sportsbook? The courts are split. The state of play, with dates.
- How old do you have to be to use Kalshi?18, not 21. Why the age is lower than a sportsbook and how it's verified.
- Can you parlay on Kalshi?Yes, they're called combos. How they're built, priced and where they differ from a sportsbook parlay.
- Kalshi taxes: what you get and what to do with itThe four 1099 forms Kalshi can send, the PnL statement, and the unsettled question of how contracts are taxed.
- What slippage means on KalshiWhy your order filled at a worse price, what volume really measures, and how to avoid both problems.
- What is Polymarket?The biggest prediction market on earth: how it works, why it's on crypto, and how it came back to the US.
- Who owns Polymarket?Shayne Coplan's private company, with ICE as the big backer. Not publicly traded.
- Is Polymarket legal in the US?Yes via the regulated US app, no via the global site. Where it's blocked and why.
- Can you parlay on Polymarket?Yes, in the US app, as combos of up to 10 legs. How they're built, priced and where they're off.
- How to use PolymarketSign-up, deposit, first trade, selling early, and how long withdrawals take, for both versions.
- Prediction market arbitrageYes on one exchange, No on the other, prices under $1. The fee math and the three ways it goes wrong.
- Prediction markets vs sportsbooksWho sets the price, what a −110 line really costs, selling early, age 18 vs 21, and the legal fight.
- How to read prediction market oddsCents → probability → American odds, in one table. Plus what the spread and the fee do to the number.