About PredictionNerd
PredictionNerd is written by one person: Ivan B., a performance marketer who has spent more than a decade trading on digital marketplaces, first in-game item markets, now event contracts. The site started as a folder of notes on Kalshi's rulebook and grew from there.
What this site is for
Prediction markets are new enough that most of what you find about them online is either a press release or a promo code with a paragraph attached. This site tries to be the third thing: a plain explanation of how each platform works, what it costs on a real trade, where it is legal, and whether a bonus is worth the conditions attached to it.
How pages are researched
- Fees, limits and rules come from each platform's own fee schedule, rulebook, help center and, where they exist, CFTC filings. Each page says when it was last checked.
- Legal status by state comes from court filings, state regulator announcements and the platforms' own availability lists, not from forum rumours.
- Promo codes are tested at the time of writing. If a code stops working, the page is updated or removed.
How the site makes money
Some links on this site are affiliate links: if you sign up through them, the platform may pay a commission. This does not change the price or the bonus you get, and it does not change what a review says. Platforms are reviewed whether or not they pay. Full details are in the affiliate disclosure.
Corrections
If something on this site is wrong or out of date, tell me. Corrections are made, not argued with.